As long-term clients will know, we have been publishing different forecasts for the economy based on two different Brexit outcomes, “deal on 31st October” and “no deal on 31st October”. We are now adding a third – “repeated delays” in which the Brexit can is kicked down an ever-lengthening road. If a common theme across these three scenarios emerges, though, it is that fiscal policy is set to loosen. And with the economy close to capacity, that points to higher interest rates than might otherwise have been the case.
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