Having outperformed in H1, the Nordic economies are set for some of the smallest falls in output in Europe this year. Of course, the virus is the key uncertainty for the outlook, but it is encouraging that Denmark’s second wave already looks to have peaked and Norway and Sweden have so far side-stepped the scale of renewed cases seen in the worst-hit countries. In the absence of a drastic tightening of restrictions, GDP in the Nordics should be close to pre-virus levels by the end of 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro-zone.
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