Comments from Saudi’s finance minister support our view that fiscal consolidation rather than a devaluation will be relied on to make the adjustment to low oil prices, which will make the economic recovery slow going. Algeria has also been hit hard by the slump in oil prices and an already terrible economic and political situation is likely to get even worse. Meanwhile, the World Bank estimated that global remittances could fall by 20% this year and countries in North Africa, Lebanon and Jordan are among those most at risk. This will add to the strains on balance of payments positions.
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