Yesterday’s larger 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, delivered by Peru’s central bank (BCRP) suggests it is becoming increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. With inflation set to stay above the 1-3% target range over the coming quarters, and GDP growth likely to beat expectations, we now think that the policy rate will rise to 2.00% by end-2021 and 3.50% by end-2022 (previously 1.25% and 2.75%).
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