The continued slide in oil prices will weigh heavily on Colombia’s economy. We have lowered our 2015 GDP growth forecast to just 2.5% (from 3.8% previously), which is well below the 4.3% forecasted by the consensus. This would be the weakest outturn since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Moreover, we expect the slowdown to trigger interest rate cuts this year. We have pencilled in two quarter-point reductions to 4.00% by the end of 2015.
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