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Policy rate to be lowered further

At its upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan is set to slash its inflation forecasts for the coming fiscal year and may push also back the timeframe for hitting the 2% inflation target yet again. While the failure to hit the target can be blamed in part on the stronger yen, domestic price pressures have weakened as well recently. We forecast a cut in the policy rate to -0.2% this week followed by further cuts in the first half of next year.

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