Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026 The outcome of the Bank’s upcoming meeting is highly uncertain but we still think that a 25bp rate hike is more likely than not. And with the yen set to remain weaker for longer and wage growth set to... 12th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will hike once more in December The Bank of Japan continues to signal that a rate hike at the upcoming meeting on 31 st October is unlikely. With economic activity and inflation evolving as the Bank had anticipated, we still expect... 24th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will deliver final rate hike in October The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its September meeting and will probably keep describing financial markets as unstable. However, recent data should have strengthened the Bank’s... 12th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift rates to 0.5% by year-end At its upcoming meeting, we expect the Bank of Japan to announce a reduction in its monthly bond purchases to ¥2tn over the next couple of years, with an initial reduction to ¥5tn. And we expect the... 24th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Window for policy tightening starting to close While there’s a chance that the Bank of Japan may reduce its bond purchases at the upcoming meeting, we think it will wait until its July meeting before making that announcement. We also expect the... 6th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will deliver final rate hike in July Governor Ueda sounds keen on tightening policy further and we’re pencilling in another interest rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s July meeting. However, with underlying inflation set to fall below 2%... 22nd April 2024 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates and YCC will end this month With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting... 13th March 2024 · 11 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift policy rate to 0.1% in March The Bank of Japan may revise up its medium-term inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting but will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged. We expect the Bank to lift its policy rate to 0.1... 16th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will end negative rates in January The Bank of Japan is increasingly keen to abolish negative interest rates and we think the most likely venue is the Bank’s January meeting. However, we only expect one interest rate hike to 0.1% as... 12th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecast revisions won’t prompt tighter policy just yet The Bank of Japan will lift its growth and inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting, but we think that it will wait for further signs that strong wage growth continues before tightening policy any... 24th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates will end in early-2024 Even though the sustainability of above-target inflation is still far from assured, the Bank of Japan seems to be keen on finally ending negative rates. Accordingly, we now expect a 20bp hike in the... 18th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control won’t be tweaked At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan will revise up its inflation forecasts amid early signs of stronger wage pressures. While that could open the door for a further widening of the tolerance... 21st July 2023 · 9 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control here to stay The Bank of Japan has kept sending dovish signals in recent weeks and our view remains that it won’t make major policy changes this year. And we doubt that the upcoming review will show a compelling... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Ueda will ditch Yield Curve Control at his first meeting Governor Kazuo Ueda faces a difficult choice as inflation has risen faster than the Bank had anticipated but economic activity is much weaker than the Bank had thought. While the risks are tilted... 21st April 2023 · 10 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control could be abandoned this month Yield Curve Control is on counted time and the key question is not if but when it will be abandoned. The Bank could wait until Kazuo Ueda becomes Governor in April. But given that this risks another... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Counting down the clock on Yield Curve Control The widening of the Bank’s tolerance band around 10-year yields has done little to improve market functioning while the government seems to be pressing for a policy shift in response to higher... 11th January 2023 · 9 mins read
