India this week overtook Brazil to become the second-worst affected country by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is only a matter of time before its total virus cases surpasses those in the US. This grim milestone shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given India’s enormous population, but it’s still a major concern and the authorities have little choice but to keep restrictions in place for a prolonged period. This underpins our view that the economy will suffer a much larger drop in output this year than many of its EM peers, particularly those in Asia.
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