The heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty that would follow a victory for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely see the dollar weaken against traditional safe havens such as the Japanese yen, and the price of gold would jump. Fears that China might dump US assets and the prospect of a further delay before the Fed raises rates would be likely to weaken the dollar against the euro and sterling too. But the dollar would probably strengthen against most emerging market currencies.
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