The G20 was probably right to include UK exit from the European Union on its list of potential risks to the global recovery, especially given the precedent of the euro-zone crisis in 2011-12. However, the negative impacts of ‘Brexit’ are likely to be smaller than many fear, including the short-term costs to the UK itself. More speculatively, there may even be some positives for the world economy – notably the additional pressure for more growth-friendly policies in the remainder of the EU.
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