The Trump fiscal stimulus, which has turned out to be larger than seemed likely a few months ago, should boost economic growth in the US a little, and encourage the Fed to press on with six rate hikes between now and mid-2019. But at a global level, any fiscal loosening this year will be very modest. Governments in Germany and Italy are likely to ease fiscal policy only very slightly. And Japan is unlikely to make any major fiscal policy changes until its sales tax hike planned for late 2019.
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