The latest flare-up in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran is one of two main factors undermining global equities today, although we believe it has been much less important for financial markets than the negative headlines from China. Oil prices have risen, but not materially. Indeed, ample global stocks of crude and higher production elsewhere mean that geopolitical risks from the Middle East are not as great as they once were. Nonetheless, given the widespread unease, this Update also traces out some ways in which the current crisis might affect oil prices – in both directions.
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