The deceleration of the Turkish economy in Q4 was not as bad as we had feared. However, the strength of net exports masked a much sharper slowdown in domestic demand – a process which has much further to run in order to bring down Turkey’s huge gaping current account deficit. On the basis of today’s better than expected data, we are nudging up our growth forecast for this year to 0.8% – but this remains below-consensus and well down on last year’s 8.5%.
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