The rebound in Russian industrial production has taken many, including us, by surprise and has been interpreted by some as a sign that a weaker ruble has started to provide support to industry. However, a closer look at the data reveals that much of the recent pick-up has been due to temporary factors and has been concentrated in just a couple of sectors. The bigger picture is that mounting capacity constraints and a slump in investment mean that it’s too early to speak of a renaissance in Russian industry.
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