This week’s Q3 GDP data in India will probably show that growth slowed in y/y terms to 8.6%. Nevertheless, our estimate of the GDP trend in q/q seasonally-adjusted terms suggests that growth accelerated sharply relative to Q2. The upshot is that we expect GDP to rise 8.8% in FY10-11 (April-March), followed by close to 9% pa growth in coming years. The governance problems in the public sector should be offset by favourable demographics, sound policies, and continued reforms which will allow the private sector and entrepreneurship to thrive.
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