Our forecasts for GDP growth across Emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board, but fresh outbreaks in a number of countries mean the risks to our forecasts are to the downside. Korea, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Thailand have all had to introduce new restrictions in recent weeks to slow the rise in virus cases, and we recently downgraded our GDP growth forecasts for Malaysia after the government there introduced a new lockdown. The best-performing economies during the crisis have been China and Taiwan, but growth in both places will slow in q/q terms now that output gaps have closed. In the countries that have been hit worst economically, India and the Philippines, falling virus numbers and the imminent rollout of vaccines will allow restrictions to be eased further over the coming months, which should support recoveries. But GDP at the end of the year in both countries will still be well below where it would have been had the pandemic not happened.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services