Any further easing from the US Fed will probably be limited to lengthening the maturity of its existing holdings of Treasury securities (“Operation Twist”) rather than a third round of outright purchases (“QE3”), at least until core inflation starts to fall back next spring. If so, this will do little to support the prices of oil or industrial metals, which we expect to continue to slide, although gold should still benefit from a resurgence of demand for a safe haven from the crisis in the euro-zone.
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