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US-China trade tensions remain a threat

The US Treasury has again chosen not to label China a currency manipulator. With US economic prospects looking brighter, the immediate risk of a flare up in tensions over China’s trade and currency policy seems low. Nonetheless, China’s imbalances are growing again and countries such as Brazil are joining in the criticism of Chinese policy. A trade war remains a significant threat if global growth drops back in 2012, as we expect.

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