The rebound in South African manufacturing output in November is encouraging. But we expect that this was probably a blip rather than the beginning of a lasting acceleration. Figures released today by Statistics South Africa showed that manufacturing output rose by 1.9% y/y in November, the strongest reading in five months and a significant turnaround following the 2.7% fall recorded in October. November’s manufacturing rebound is positive news. But with most key sectors of the economy weak, we still expect that South Africa’s economy struggled in Q4, potentially even contracting q/q.
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