Softer landing, but the runway is longer

Q1 2024 UK Economic Outlook

A shallower recession, but the Bank of England will cut rates later than most anticipate

"With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for the economy, but the runway is longer."

The latest edition of this quarterly report provides comprehensive analysis of the UK economy for the coming year and beyond, assessing the key issues that will shape macro and market outcomes, including:

Why the UK faces a weak 2024 as higher rates take more time to feed through;
Why the supply constraints that have driven up inflation will take more time to unwind;
How this feeds into our view that the Bank of England will cut rates later this year than most anticipate – but by more than most expect in 2025.

Download a complimentary copy of this report now to understand what lies ahead for the UK economy.

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...we now think the recession will start later, in the second half of this year, and that the peak-to-trough decline in real GDP will be 0.5% rather than 1.0%.

Paul Dales

Chief UK Economist

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UK economics coverage

Our UK economics coverage provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the UK economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.