UK Housing Market Update

Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2024)

Demand for mortgage credit jumped in Q1 in response to the drop in mortgage rates over the second half of 2023. But a rise in financial market interest rates this week, due to higher-than-expected...

1st February 2025 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (Mar. 2024)

Mortgage rates dipping back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase edge slightly higher in March. But recent increases in the 10-year Treasury yield point to mortgage rates climbing...

3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Feb. 24)

2nd April 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Feb. 2024)

February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals to a 17-month high. This is unlikely to continue in the near term. But if we’re...

2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

A pause in the fall in mortgage rates and a rise in the number of homes coming onto the market mean house price growth will stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut further...

26th March 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Rental market continues to contract

The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but...

12th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (Feb. 2024)

February’s mortgage applications data show rising mortgage rates put an end to what had been the start of a fairly promising recovery, following the low for applications in October 2023. We think this...

6th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

No end in sight to rising house prices

Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ will continue to curb home moves. As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the...

5th March 2024 · 15 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Germany not the only source of debt distress in Europe

Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s...

1st March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have office delinquencies not hit GFC-era highs?

The resilience of the US economy in this cycle means the rise in distressed assets has been much slower than in the GFC-era recession, as relatively few firms have gone bust. But the structural...

29th February 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Jan. 24)

29th February 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Jan. 2024)

January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates is easing, which suggests an economic recovery, at least in some sectors, has...

29th February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse

A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024.

28th February 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Larger mortgages challenge weak house price forecasts

The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read