UK Housing Market Update Rental market continues to contract The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Feb. 2024) February’s mortgage applications data show rising mortgage rates put an end to what had been the start of a fairly promising recovery, following the low for applications in October 2023. We think this... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook No end in sight to rising house prices Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ will continue to curb home moves. As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Germany not the only source of debt distress in Europe Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have office delinquencies not hit GFC-era highs? The resilience of the US economy in this cycle means the rise in distressed assets has been much slower than in the GFC-era recession, as relatively few firms have gone bust. But the structural... 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jan. 24) 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jan. 2024) January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates is easing, which suggests an economic recovery, at least in some sectors, has... 29th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024. 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Larger mortgages challenge weak house price forecasts The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will... 19th February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Answering questions from our debt distress Drop-In This week we held a Drop-In on commercial property distress across the US, UK and Europe. Clients can access a recording here and find related analysis on our dedicated landing page. This Update... 16th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Offices still the most likely source of distress While we expect the office and multifamily sectors to account for the lion’s share of distressed assets over the next couple of years, there is an important distinction between the two. Unlike... 15th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Later rate cuts are the biggest risk to the recovery Current fixed mortgage rates of around 4.6% are based on investors’ forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year. We think that rates will be reduced a bit faster... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (January) There was a surprisingly sharp increase in the amount of outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt held by commercial banks in January, which rose by $10.7bn, the largest monthly increase since... 12th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How big a threat is debt distress in Europe? Falling interest rates will not prevent a rise in refinancing distress in Europe in the coming years – debt funding gaps will be large and forced selling will increase. However, financing pressures... 7th February 2024 · 20 mins read
