UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum

The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Focus

Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much

Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on...

6th June 2024 · 14 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (May 2024)

The decline in mortgage rates in May was not enough to stop home purchase mortgage applications from falling to a three-month low. The chances of a quick turnaround in June currently look slim, as the...

5th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK?

While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes...

28th May 2024 · 6 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Mortgage rates climbed back above 7% last month but we think that trend will soon reverse, with rates falling to 6.5% by year-end. Lower borrowing costs will draw more mortgaged buyers into the market...

14th May 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Shutting out institutional buyers won’t lower house prices

Lawmakers' current efforts to restrict institutional buying of single-family homes won’t put downward pressure on house prices if enacted, as their market share is minimal.

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (Apr. 2024)

The small rebound in mortgage demand in March proved short-lived, as higher borrowing costs caused home purchase mortgage applications to drop 2.3% m/m in April. But the 10-year Treasury yield’s...

8th May 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Mar. 2024)

March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is starting to fade, which supports our view that activity rebounded in Q1. And our forecast for...

30th April 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Even if mortgage rates fall to 6.5% this year as we expect, homeowners will still be discouraged from listing their home, ensuring supply remains tight. At the same time, mortgaged buyer demand should...

18th April 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Update

Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2024)

Demand for mortgage credit jumped in Q1 in response to the drop in mortgage rates over the second half of 2023. But a rise in financial market interest rates this week, due to higher-than-expected...

11th April 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (Mar. 2024)

Mortgage rates dipping back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase edge slightly higher in March. But recent increases in the 10-year Treasury yield point to mortgage rates climbing...

3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Feb. 24)

2nd April 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Feb. 2024)

February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals to a 17-month high. This is unlikely to continue in the near term. But if we’re...

2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

A pause in the fall in mortgage rates and a rise in the number of homes coming onto the market mean house price growth will stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut further...

26th March 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read