Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the crisis in Kashmir? The fall in Pakistan’s stock market today is the first sign that investors are starting to become concerned about the escalating crisis in Kashmir. The most likely outcome is that tensions are dialled... 7th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: further rate hikes needed to combat inflation Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised its benchmark interest rates by a further 100bp amid continued concerns about high inflation and the country’s current account deficit. With inflation set to... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will an IMF deal solve Pakistan’s problems? The policy tightening and structural reforms that Pakistan has agreed to as the price of a deal with the IMF are likely to lead to a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the near-term but should also... 4th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What would US rate cuts mean for Asia? Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Weaker growth is here to stay With productivity slowing and working age populations set to start falling across most of Asia, we expect regional growth to slow to just 3.5% in a decade’s time. This compares with average growth of... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines inflation, Asia’s “currency manipulators” Signs that Philippines inflation continued to tumble in May suggest that the easing cycle there has further to run. Meanwhile, easing is also likely in Malaysia, Korea and Singapore in the second half... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weakest growth in a decade, further weakness ahead Growth slowed sharply in Emerging Asia last quarter, and is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming year, with looser fiscal and monetary policy unlikely to offset the drag from weaker global... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates again, further tightening to come Concerns about high inflation and the country’s large current account deficit mean today’s 150bp rate hike by Pakistan central bank (SBP) is unlikely to be the last in the current tightening cycle. 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines loosens further, Pakistan back to the IMF The recently announced cut to the reserve requirement ratio in the Philippines should provide a boost to economic growth and suggests that further cuts to the policy rate are likely soon. Meanwhile... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: IMF deal to cause growth to slow Pakistan’s agreement with the IMF is likely to lead to slower growth and higher inflation in the short term. However, policy tightening and structural reforms should lead to an improvement in the... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIS (Apr.) A slight improvement in the April PMIs fits with yesterday’s trade data from Korea in suggesting that the region’s economies have passed the worst. That said, we still expect regional growth to remain... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak export growth looks set to continue The most recent trade data, including the very weak outturn in Korean exports over the first 20 days of this month, suggest that regional trade remains in the doldrums. With the external sector facing... 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Technology slump bottoms out, Philippines budget A slump in electronics exports has been a key drag on economic growth across Asia in recent months, but there are tentative signs that the worst may now be over. Meanwhile, after months of delays, the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates, further tightening to come The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised its policy rate by a further 50bp to 10.75%, and we think further rate hikes are likely over the coming months due to worries about high inflation and the... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the crisis in Kashmir? The fall in Pakistan’s stock market today is the first sign that investors are starting to become concerned about the escalating crisis in Kashmir. The most likely outcome is that tensions are dialled... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
