Europe Economics Weekly Energy, semi-conductors and Italy’s Green Pass The continued high level of energy prices strengthens our view that euro-zone inflation will keep rising in the coming months. But by lowering consumers’ purchasing power, it could actually reduce... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further rise in Israeli inflation to 2.5% y/y in September contained no major surprises and we think it will ease towards the lower end of the central bank’s 1-3% target next year. Even so, with... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Car woes to weigh on recoveries in Mexico & CEE The supply constraints that have hit global vehicle output have probably reduced the level of GDP by a modest 0.1-0.2% in most EM auto producers, but some countries like Czechia, Hungary and Mexico... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2021) An ongoing improvement in credit availability may offset the increase in Bank Rate we expect in 2022. That offers support to our forecast that mortgage rates will remain low. 14th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Wider market confirms recovery in prime data The latest MSCI data show that the wider market has moved roughly in line with our prime data since the onset of the pandemic and provide support to our outlook for property values. 14th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the sell-off in DM bonds will resume While the yields of long-dated government bonds in the euro-zone, UK and US have dropped back a bit in recent days, we think they will rise between now and the end of 2023. We expect increases in... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Sep.) While CPIF inflation in Sweden rose to a 155-month (!) high in September, we expect core inflation to remain at a more moderate level over the coming years, and lower than in the US, say. As a result... 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid wage growth to fuel above-target inflation Central and Eastern Europe is one of the regions of the world where we think that the risk of sustained higher inflation in the next few years is greatest. The Phillips curve is alive and we think the... 13th October 2021 · 19 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug) The large decline in euro-zone industrial production in August was largely due to supply shortages affecting production, particularly in the German auto sector. While demand is still strong, prolonged... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in August confirms that the rapid gains in output, which in just 16 months lifted GDP from being 25.1% below its February 2020 pre-pandemic peak to 0.8% below, are now behind... 13th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update “Underlying inflation” still weak Core inflation in the euro-zone rose to 1.9% in September, its highest level in nearly 13 years, but other measures of underlying inflation are much lower. This supports our view that when the... 12th October 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Labour shortages becoming worse and more widespread Labour shortages seem to be worse and more widespread than we had expected. Although the end of the furlough scheme in late September may ease some of the shortages, we doubt it will plug all the... 12th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) Turkey’s industrial sector bounced back in August following a weak start to the quarter and, while retail sales growth slowed, it looks like the economy recorded another robust increase in GDP in Q3. 12th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Aug./Sep.) The further strengthening of the labour market in August may prompt some members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to put more weight on the upside risks to inflation rather than the downside... 12th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Sep.) There was nothing in today’s release of Norwegian inflation data for September to overly trouble the Norges Bank, or cause it to deviate from its stated intention to raise interest rates again in... 11th October 2021 · 2 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Assessing the outlook for US equity valuations We forecast that the valuation of the US stock market will deflate a bit further over the next couple of years, though we are not expecting a sharp decline. 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
