Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment to peak later next year The Q3 investment data indicate that activity could be slightly stronger this year than we had expected. However, with the economic recovery topping out and structural headwinds limiting investment in... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the winners and losers from high energy prices Oil, gas and coal prices have reached multi-year highs in recent weeks and this Update takes a look at some of the implications for the region. In short, an improvement in Russia’s terms of trade has... 28th October 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics BoE fast out of the blocks on rates, but won’t go the distance We now think there’s a high chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.10% to 0.25% at the meeting on Thursday 4 th November. It may then raise rates to 0.50% in... 28th October 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (October) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for October increased a touch, but the details show that expectations for production declined slightly, probably due to the worsening supply chain problems. So... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for October showed that sentiment in industry and services softened across most of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q4. With rising virus cases adding... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q3) & ETI (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected growth in Swedish GDP in Q3 shows that the recovery continued apace over the summer, lifting activity even further above its pre-pandemic level. But while business... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Budget October 2021 – OBR delivers for Sunak This Budget was perhaps more notable for what the Chancellor didn’t do rather than what he did. The OBR handed Rishi Sunak a significant upgrade to its forecasts for the public finances but, while the... 27th October 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist We are resending this Budget Checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Budget. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Money growth has slowed this year and is likely to decline further next year. Meanwhile, although the pandemic has resulted in a huge increase in the money supply, we do not think this will cause... 27th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s labour force likely to make full recovery Since the start of the pandemic, Italy has experienced a bigger drop in its workforce than other euro-zone countries. But that largely reflects temporary factors, which suggests that the labour force... 26th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed virus waves cast clouds over the recovery COVID-19 outbreaks have surged across the region in the past month. Record high daily cases have been reported in Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia and infections are rising sharply elsewhere... 26th October 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 27 th October and to provide some... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (October) The fourth successive monthly fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index provides more evidence – if it were needed – that supply side disruption is causing the German economy to slow sharply and suggests... 25th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Risk of stronger French industrial rental growth ahead We expect steady French industrial rental growth over the next few years on the back of a solid economic backdrop and more online shopping. That said, if construction costs and land constraints become... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental recovery gathers momentum September was another good month for commercial property, with the first year-on-year rental growth recorded since the onset of COVID-19. But as clouds gather over the economic upturn, we suspect that... 22nd October 2021 · 7 mins read
