Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Surging virus cases and the re-imposition of lockdowns A renewed wave of COVID-19 cases has prompted some governments to reimpose strict containment measures across Emerging Europe and talk of lockdowns is now becoming more widespread. The experience so... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Investors overestimating interest rate hikes The extent of the shift in investors’ expectations of interest rates over the past month has been staggering. Investors are now pricing in an 80% chance of a hike to Bank Rate, from 0.10% to 0.25%, at... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR accelerates its tightening cycle again Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle again at today’s meeting with a larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate hike, to 7.50%, and the hawkish tone of the accompanying... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A fresh start for the Bundesbank? Other than Mr Weidmann’s abrupt departure from the Bundesbank, the news this week has been dominated by the twin problems of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. There is more bad news to... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Most signs point to further trouble for the Turkish lira We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Fiscal policy back in focus The upward shift in investors’ interest rate expectations over the past month has been remarkable. While it is impossible to predict the timing of the first rate hike with any certainty, we have more... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Supply issues biting in Sweden; e-krona has a logo! We assume that Swedish output recovered about two thirds of August’s precipitous plunge in September, and that preliminary Q3 GDP data due for release next week will show that the economy grew by 0.7%... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Sep.) & Flash PMIs (Oct.) The fifth consecutive fall in retail sales in September, together with signs that non-retail spending was also weak, supports our view that the economic recovery slowed to a crawl last month. But... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s euro-zone PMI surveys suggest that supply problems in the manufacturing sector are getting worse, weighing on output and causing price pressures to intensify. 22nd October 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President... 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Online risks to retail may not be as bad as once feared By any standard, retail property has had a torrid time during the pandemic. The latest data on online sales look like further bad news, with the share of spending much higher than expected after... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB insisting that inflation is largely transient Nobody expects the ECB Governing Council to make any policy changes at next week’s monetary policy meeting. However, Christine Lagarde will address concerns about rising inflationary pressures and we... 21st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT now playing with fire after aggressive rate cut Any remaining confidence in the credibility of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) was shattered after today’s larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate cut, to 16.00%. The lira hit a fresh record low against... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail rents to recover but not surge After a fall this year, we expect Warsaw retail rents to return to growth in 2022. That said, the city’s reliance on office workers means that the shift to remote working will weigh on retail spending... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Budget Preview – Restraint now, largesse later Despite the improving outlook for the public finances, the rumours that the Chancellor will set himself some fairly stringent fiscal rules suggest that there’s not going to be a net giveaway in the... 21st October 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Materials shortages restrain construction Shortages of construction materials are unlikely to ease for at least another 6-12 months, restraining activity in the renovation sector and among smaller housebuilders That is likely to cap housing... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
