Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound to weaken, Gulf support for Lebanon Comments from the Central Bank of Egypt’s governor, Tarek Amer, earlier this week add weight to our view that the authorities will scale back support for the pound. This is likely to result in a... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equities rally, strikes in Tunisia, Lebanese debt Saudi Arabia’s stock market has rallied over the past week or so, but we expect this to go into reverse. Meanwhile, public sector strikes taking place in Tunisia today highlight the scale of the... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A primer on Lebanon’s sovereign debt It seems more likely than not that the Lebanese authorities will have to follow through with debt restructuring to place the public finances on a more sustainable footing. With commercial banks... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese debt restructuring, Saudi’s dollar bond sale Reports that Lebanon’s government is putting together a debt restructuring plan suggest that some of the risks we’ve previously warned about are crystallising. And there’s a good chance that this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slumps, more political twists in Tunisia and Lebanon The drop in oil prices over the past week probably has further to run, which is a key reason why we think that the economic recovery in the Gulf will peak in the middle of 2019 and perhaps even sooner... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will stronger growth in the Gulf boost the rest of MENA? We expect that growth will strengthen in the Gulf over the coming quarters, but any potential boost to the rest of the MENA region is likely to be modest. While remittance flows might pick up, trade... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Focus turns to problems in region’s smaller economies Balance sheets in MENA’s largest economies have improved in recent years, but those in some the smaller economies remain very fragile, something that the markets are now paying attention too. Bahrain... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon lurching towards a crisis? Lebanon’s recent political deadlock has reignited fears over the country’s weak balance sheets. A fresh escalation of tensions with the Gulf is still a major threat and, as we’ve warned before, this... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian dinar falls further, Lebanon in the spotlight The Tunisian dinar has continued to decline over the past week and we think that the currency has further to fall. However, any moves should be fairly gradual. Elsewhere, the recent widening of... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Market turmoil fails to derail Egypt’s dollar bond sale Egypt defied the recent turmoil in global financial markets and issued $4bn of international bonds earlier this week. The sale was three times oversubscribed and the issuance was split into three... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s dollar peg under threat as tensions mount The deterioration in relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia in recent days has raised fresh concerns over the sustainability of Lebanon’s dollar peg. While the country has substantial FX reserves... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional growth slows further The raft of GDP data released over the past month showed that growth across the Middle East & North Africa continued to slow in Q2. Our weighted-average measure of regional GDP expanded by 1.4% y/y in... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Turning the corner Growth across the Middle East and North Africa has slowed further this year, but it should recover in 2018 and 2019. In the Gulf, the drag on GDP growth from this year’s oil production cuts will fade... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia returns to the international bond market Saudi Arabia returned to the international bond market this month in order to plug its twin budget and current account shortfalls. A total of $12.5bn of dollar debt was issued, split into three... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Qatar crisis reaches an impasse The diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers seems to be in deadlock. Saudi Arabia and its allies revised their demands in July to something that appeared to be more palatable for Doha, but... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
