Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices to help narrow twin deficits The price of oil has continued to rise and will help to improve balance sheets in the Gulf. With oil prices at $75pb, all Gulf economies with the exceptions of Bahrain and Oman are likely to be... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The latest on COVID-19 and vaccines in MENA Virus numbers have fallen in the past few months in the MENA region and a rapid vaccine rollout should allow most of the Gulf economies, as well as Morocco, to lift restrictions further over the... 21st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The impact of the Beirut blast The major blast in Beirut yesterday has severe humanitarian consequences, and the incident threatens to deepen the country’s economic and political crises. 5th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s crisis goes from really bad to even worse Lebanon’s government has made little progress with its economic rescue plan and there’s a growing likelihood that the sovereign debt and currency crises already underway will ultimately lead to series... 15th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon heads to the IMF, but risks still abound The announcement that Lebanon will formally seek financial assistance from the IMF should help to avoid a more disorderly outcome from the country’s current debt crisis. However, we hold reservations... 1st May 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon opts for default The news that Lebanon’s government won’t repay a $1.2bn Eurobond maturing has caused bond prices across the curve to fall and all eyes will now turn to the government’s plans to restructure its debts... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon: how might a debt restructuring play out? Lebanon’s government is set to decide tomorrow on whether to repay a $1.2bn Eurobond maturing on Monday. Whatever the decision, a debt restructuring inevitably lies in store and the government will... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon default fears, Tunisia finally has a government It is looking increasingly likely that Lebanon’s government will default on a Eurobond payment in March. And while the government is now turning to the IMF to work through its crisis, time is running... 20th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon: what will an IMF deal look like? Lebanon’s new government appears to be warming to the idea of going to the IMF, which would reduce the risk of a disorderly debt default that causes severe strains in the local banking sector. But... 13th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf tightening the purse strings Fiscal plans announced across the Gulf over the past month suggest that governments will keep policy tight, a key reason why we think that economic growth will disappoint this year. The Saudi 2020... 29th January 2020 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon: how do things play out from here? The political situation in Lebanon shows little sign of improving and the risk of a disorderly devaluation, sovereign default and banking crisis are rising by the day. Our sense is that the... 4th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon and devaluation: a bitter medicine? Pressure is growing on Lebanon’s dollar peg and, in the event of a devaluation, the pound could fall by as much as 50% against the dollar. A messy sovereign default and a deep recession would follow... 19th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why Lebanon is heading for a debt restructuring The recent protests in Lebanon highlight that it is politically impossible to push through the fiscal austerity needed to stabilise the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio. A debt restructuring is... 23rd October 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s electricity reform: necessary but insufficient Reform of Lebanon’s state-owned electricity company, EdL, lies at the heart of the government’s efforts to tackle the dire public finances. But while this is needed, the approved measures are unlikely... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Lebanon stuck between a rock and a hard place The outlook for Lebanon’s economy is going from bad to worse. The most immediate threat is that the country could find itself caught in the crosshairs amid escalating tensions between the Gulf... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Balance sheets improving, but vulnerabilities remain The health of balance sheets across the Middle East and North Africa have come under the spotlight in recent months. We are most concerned about some of the smaller economies, particularly Lebanon. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
