Asia Economics Weekly BoK hints at rate cuts, tourism slumps in Sri Lanka Policymakers in Korea finally seem to be coming around to our view that rate cuts are needed to support the struggling economy after BoK Governor hinted that the central bank “must take appropriate... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rumours, South Africa recovery, Ethiopia reforms Despite this week’s mixed messages from Nigerian officials, we doubt that the country’s FX system will be reformed anytime soon. In South Africa, the latest activity data suggest that the economy... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What do oil price moves mean for core inflation? Oil prices have fallen close to our end-year forecast and should drag on inflation during the rest of 2019. Admittedly, the risks to our oil price forecast are skewed to the upside. But even a surge... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could HTB be renewed once more? Despite its flaws, Help-to-Buy has been effective in supporting housing construction. As a result, when the time comes, the government may have little choice but to renew the scheme again. 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) While Swedish inflation surprised on the upside in May, we expect it to fall back as economic growth slows over the coming months. As a result, we are sticking to our dovish view that the Riksbank... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) Another disappointing batch of activity data in May reinforces our view that growth will probably weaken a bit more this quarter. With consumer and business sentiment likely to sour further as the... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea will struggle to reverse demographic decline The Korean government has made some welcome progress over recent years in encouraging more women into formal employment. But even if this trend continues, the size of the workforce in Korea looks set... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe blowing his own trumpet a little too loudly PM Abe has presided over a sharp increase in employment since he returned to power in 2012. But productivity growth has been very weak, red tape remains prevalent and there are still too few foreign... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s “nonsense output gap” is not the big issue Some commentators have argued that technicalities around estimates of euro-zone countries’ output gaps have led to excessively-tight fiscal policy. While we have some sympathy with this view, in Italy... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s banks: why the next crisis will be worse Turkey’s banks came through last year’s currency crisis without suffering the severe problems that many had feared. But credit growth will probably stay weak, holding back the economic recovery... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting our 2019 Latin America growth forecasts The weakness in growth across Latin America in Q1 largely reflected a coincidence of shocks, and probably won’t last. Even so, the weak carryover has prompted us to revise down our (already below-... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth not as strong as LFS suggests Annual wage growth according to the Labour Force Survey looks set to rise towards almost 4% in the coming months, but experience suggests that it is probably exaggerating the true strength of wages... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will African Swine Fever have on EMs? African Swine Fever has already pushed inflation in China up markedly and, if the disease spreads further, it could also add around 0.3%-pts to inflation in parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. The... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rise in rent expectations won’t boost rental growth Unlike house price expectations, the theoretical link between rent expectations and actual rental growth is weak. Indeed, changes in rental expectations have proven to be a poor leading indicator... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jun.) OPEC highlighted risks to demand and high stocks in its latest report which, coupled with lower prices, suggest that there will be little appetite for increasing production when the group meets later... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
