India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) While India's headline inflation edged up in May and is likely to rise further, a sizeable fall in core inflation will be seen by policymakers at the RBI as vindication of their view that there is... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack GDP growth set to slow in Q2 Q1 GDP data for Switzerland and the Nordic economies were a mixed big and proved the adage that the devil is in the detail. Switzerland and Sweden both posted the same headline growth rate (0.6% q/q)... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT inches towards easing, but lira risks linger The Turkish central bank provided further hints at today’s meeting that it is moving towards monetary easing. But policy moves will hinge on the lira and, with a number of flashpoints on the horizon... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: SOE worries widespread, but few pose real risks Many of South Africa’s state-owned firms face financial and management troubles, but most – like South African Airways – pose little risk to the wider economy. Eskom and Transnet are the only two... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tweaking our (already dovish) ECB forecast Mr Draghi’s comments at the ECB’s press conference last week suggest that the Governing Council is gearing up to loosen monetary policy a bit earlier than we had anticipated. We now think it will... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Credit growth remained broadly stable in May. Policy easing has not yet been effective in generating a sustained pick-up in credit growth and is one of the reasons why we don’t expect a strong... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Headline inflation was once again boosted by a sharp rise in pork prices in May. But with core inflation declining to a three-year low, it is clear that demand-side pressures on prices remain muted. 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US-China trade war prompts cuts to our forecasts We have now factored into our forecasts a ratcheting-up of trade tensions between the US and China over the next year. Given this, we have shaved our projections for the prices of some metals. However... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent setback for the US dollar likely to be temporary Although the US dollar has pulled back over the past fortnight, we expect it to strengthen once more against most major currencies in the second half of this year as the global economy slows. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Real yields likely to rebound in the UK, pushing Gilt yields up 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in April, of 1.5% m/m, suggests that, after a disappointing Q1, GDP growth will recover in Q2. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about “mini-BOTs”? The Italian government issuing so-called “mini-BOTs” to pay public sector arrears would fuel speculation about Italy’s future in the euro-zone. It seems unlikely that this will happen over the next... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the fall in interest margins overstated? Reflecting changes to the composition of their balance sheets, banks are increasingly pricing their loans off deposit funds, rather than short-term wholesale debt. That suggests there is a downside... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher interest rates not likely to halt lending We think that lower demand for credit as capital values fall will have a larger impact on property lending than higher interest rates because it appears that borrowers will remain comfortable... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Apr.) Manufacturing output jumped to a three-year high of 4.6% y/y in April. This provides the first sign that the economy returned to growth in Q2, thus dodging a technical recession. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish industry shrugging off euro-zone weakness Polish industry has been surprisingly resilient this year, largely reflecting impressive demand from the domestic market. We still expect weak external demand to weigh more heavily on growth in the... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
