UK Economics Update MPC softens tone on interest rate rises Given the drop in GDP in April and the fall in inflation back to target in May, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from 0.75% today. What’s more, the tone of the... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Taiwan to be left on hold Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.375%, and is likely to be in little rush to cut interest rates despite the poor outlook for growth. We expect interest rates to be... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon debt fears, regional tensions, Fed rate cuts The widening of Lebanese dollar bond spreads over the past week suggests that investors are coming round to our view that the authorities will need to resort to a debt restructuring. Meanwhile, this... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further policy loosening on the cards Amid signs of a recent slowdown in economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting in early June, taking the repo rate to its lowest since 2010. What’s... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update BI hints at rate cuts, but prolonged easing unlikely Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.0% but the decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio and the dovish shift in the central bank’s rhetoric suggests interest rates are likely... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) Having grown unusually quickly in Q1, helped on by good weather and perhaps some purchases being brought forward ahead of the original Brexit date, retail sales growth has returned to its usual pace... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines likely to resume easing cycle soon The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% today, but it clearly left the door open to further easing. With inflation likely to fall back further over the coming... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: better GDP data no election game-changer Argentina’s recession eased in Q1 and our GDP Tracker suggests that the economy returned to positive growth in Q2, but the recovery will be weak and the unemployment rate looks set to rise further... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank leaves door open for another rate hike This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25% came as no surprise. But while policymakers left the door open for further rates hikes in 2019, we think there... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan sticking to its guns The Bank of Japan is showing no signs of shifting to a more dovish stance, despite the impending sales tax hike and moves towards easing by the Fed (and the ECB). As long as there is no sharp downturn... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank sets a high bar for easing The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) cautious statement from last night’s meeting will disappoint the markets, which had expected Copom to lay the ground for the start of an easing cycle. With the... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After a recent run of large builds, last week’s drawdowns in US stocks of both commercial crude and gasoline point to an improvement in US oil demand. But with stocks still relatively high, we think... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Surpluses to weigh on cobalt prices in 2019 and 2020 There has been a renewed slump in the price of cobalt in recent months, owing in large part to a jump in supply. In this Metals Watch, we explore cobalt’s short-term supply and demand prospects and... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Investors hoping for unlikely mix of rate cuts and strong earnings 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The upside surprises in core and headline inflation in May reduce the chance of the Bank cutting interest rates in the next few months. But we expect core inflation to drift back down in the second... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export weakness to persist, trade deal or not The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit has raised hopes of a US-China trade deal but, as things stand, we think it is more likely that the trade war will ultimately... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
