Julie Nicol

Julie Nicol is the Office Administrator in Singapore, working closely with the London office as well as providing support to the local sales team.

Japan Data Response

Machinery Orders (Mar.)

We already know that business investment was little changed last quarter. As such, we wouldn’t read too much into the fall in machinery orders in March. The bigger picture is that firms are facing...

17th May 2018 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Thailand in no hurry to hike rates

The Bank of Thailand unsurprisingly decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.5% against a backdrop of solid economic growth and subdued inflationary pressures. There was nothing in the...

16th May 2018 1 min read

India Economics Update

Trade deficit to remain in check

India’s goods trade deficit held steady in April, and we think it will remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US.

16th May 2018 1 min read

Japan Data Response

GDP (Q1 Preliminary)

The longest period of uninterrupted expansion since the late 1980s came to an end last quarter and we think that the economy won’t expand as much this year as it did in 2017.

16th May 2018 1 min read

China Data Response

Activity & Spending (Apr.)

Industrial activity was buoyed last month by the easing of pollution controls. But there are signs in the rest of today’s data that the broader economy is losing momentum.

15th May 2018 1 min read

India Data Response

Wholesale Prices (Apr.)

Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in April nevertheless supports our view that policy tightening is likely this year. A...

14th May 2018 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.)

The Economy Watchers Survey was little changed in April and points to a further slowdown in consumer spending and sluggish industrial activity.

10th May 2018 1 min read

Asia Data Response

Philippines GDP (Q1)

A pick-up in economic growth in the Philippines in Q1 means that we have raised our forecast for 2018 as a whole from 6.0% to 6.5%. However, this still implies a slowdown in the quarters ahead, as...

10th May 2018 1 min read

China Data Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.)

Today’s inflation data point to easing price pressures, consistent with our view that both consumer and producer price inflation are already past their peaks for the current economic cycle.

10th May 2018 1 min read

India Economics Update

Revisiting the fiscal cost of loan waivers

The trend of political parties in India promising loans waivers to farmers ahead of state elections seems increasingly well entrenched. As a result, the fiscal costs are continuing to mount. We...

9th May 2018 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.)

The surge in base pay in March underlines that the tight labour market is now generating noticeable cost pressures. However, it will still take a few more years before wage growth is strong enough to...

9th May 2018 1 min read

Europe Data Response

German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.)

March’s improvements in German industrial production and the trade balance support our view that while Q1 was a pretty poor quarter, this will not mark the start of a sustained economic slowdown.

8th May 2018 1 min read

China Data Response

Trade (Apr.)

The latest trade data suggest that domestic demand is holding up fairly well. In contrast, despite a seasonal uptick in export growth, foreign demand for Chinese goods appears to have softened, with...

8th May 2018 1 min read

India Economics Update

Inflation set to resume accelerating

Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Core price pressures are also continuing to build. We are one of only a handful of forecasters...

8th May 2018 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Household Spending (Mar.)

The fall in household spending in March suggests that private consumption dipped last quarter. And with other areas of demand broadly flat, we reiterate our forecast that GDP contracted by 0.1% q/q...

8th May 2018 1 min read

China Data Response

FX Reserves (Apr.)

China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to point to very little PBOC action in the FX markets, with muted capital outflows opening the door to renewed efforts to liberalise the capital account.

7th May 2018 1 min read