UK Economics Budget October 2021 – OBR delivers for Sunak This Budget was perhaps more notable for what the Chancellor didn’t do rather than what he did. The OBR handed Rishi Sunak a significant upgrade to its forecasts for the public finances but, while the... 27th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Running into troubled waters Supply chain problems will slow the recovery and keep inflation above target until around the middle of next year. Beyond that, however, the economy should get back on track. After regaining its pre... 19th October 2021 · 31 mins read
UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Monetary policy divergences The Norges Bank’s tightening cycle began at the end of last month and we suspect that investors are underestimating the pace of rate hikes to come. By contrast, the Riskbank looks set to leave... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Economy and policy to provide a bit less support The recent downward revision to our GDP growth forecasts and the recent hawkish signs from the Bank of England which prompted us to bring forward our forecast of when monetary policy will be tightened... 9th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Surge in inflation won’t be sustained Our forecast that COVID-19 won’t significantly reduce potential supply means that the economy can run a bit hotter for longer without generating the persistent rise in inflation that would require... 20th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Strong rebound and temporary rise in inflation The euro-zone is on the way to an almost full recovery. We expect Germany to regain its pre-pandemic level of activity later this year and the tourist-dependent southern countries to do so next year... 16th July 2021 · 33 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Activity taking off as hospitality reopens The economy has continued to rebound strongly as governments have lifted almost all restrictions on retail and restaurants and eased rules on foreign travel. Restaurant bookings are back above pre... 7th July 2021 · 11 mins read
