Commodities Weekly China only off-the-radar for now The war in Ukraine continued to dominate headlines, and commodity price movements, this week as peace talks fell apart and sent energy prices up sharply. However, at the same time, there are further... 14th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub price set to ease Strong demand for LNG exports should lead to a higher average price of US natural gas this year. But we expect prices to ease back in the coming months as demand falls over the summer and output stays... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices to remain buffeted by headwinds and tailwinds Last week, we suggested that the downside risks to prices were building, and these came to the fore in the past week with particularly hawkish US Fed minutes published on Wednesday and ongoing COVID... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Stagflation risks rising The risk of stagflation has risen substantially. The latest surveys suggest that the economy held up pretty well in March, but the forward-looking indicators paint a much gloomier picture of the... 7th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside risks to prices are building Signs of weaker demand in China in the latest PMI data and the announcement that the US will sell off a large chunk of its strategic oil reserve suggest that the downside risks to commodity prices are... 1st April 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Financial conditions as tight as after the Brexit vote The war in Ukraine has contributed to a tightening in financial conditions that will contribute to weaker GDP growth for the rest of this year and next year. Admittedly, a lot of the initial plunges... 29th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Countless risks hanging over commodity markets Taking the lead from energy, most commodity prices rose this week as hopes of an imminent ceasefire in Ukraine faded and Western leaders met to consider further sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Putin’s... 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Fiscal Statement – Big political bang, smaller economic boost The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, provided more support to the economy than we had expected over the next few years in today’s Spring Fiscal Statement, but he could have gone further in 2022/23. Instead... 23rd March 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Volatility to linger in commodity markets Commodity prices remained extremely volatile this week. After all the supply fears associated with the war on Ukraine, a rising number of COVID-19 cases in China raised concern about both demand and... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still a bumpy road ahead for commodity prices The seemingly unstoppable rise in commodity prices gave way to sharp corrections this week, though the big picture is that prices remain extremely elevated. We suspect commodity prices will continue... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics The influence of the war on the UK economy The UK is not as exposed to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine as the rest of Europe. Even so, in response to the surge in global commodity prices caused by the war we have dramatically... 9th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth The war in Ukraine has prompted us to revise our forecasts for euro-zone GDP, inflation and monetary policy. Russia’s downturn in 2015 had no obvious impact on euro-zone GDP and Russia has become less... 4th March 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Markets Markets right to bet on interest rates peaking at 2.00% Our forecast that lingering price pressures will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 0.50% now to a peak of 2.00% next year suggests there is little scope for market interest rate... 24th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Normal service to resume for Swiss/Bund bond spread Yields on 10-year Swiss government bonds have moved in lockstep with those of Bunds since the start of the pandemic, and thus followed their German counterparts above zero in January. While the Swiss... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical twists & turns to continue to drive prices It was a rollercoaster week for many commodities as tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine ebbed and flowed and the West held talks with Iran over a new nuclear deal. In the end, it was... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Household incomes taking a big hit We estimate that the leap in utility prices and hike in taxes on 1 st April will reduce real household disposable incomes over the next two years by a cumulative £80bn. The resulting 2.0% decline in... 10th February 2022 · 8 mins read
