UK Markets Outlook Shaking off the underperformance UK assets are well placed to shake off their underperformance since the 2016 Brexit vote by outperforming global assets over the next couple of years. All risky assets will continue to be buoyed by... 15th February 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations need to improve further to attract buyers Property valuations improved in Q4, after they stabilised in the previous quarter. This was largely on the back of the vaccine announcements, which drove a recovery in equity prices and lowered... 9th February 2021 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q4) The Q4 data showed a first rise in reported construction workloads since Q4 2019, albeit a modest one. With expectations more upbeat too, this could suggest activity has turned a corner. But tight... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The construction industry outperformed the rest of the economy in 2020 by being the first and only sector to see output recover to its pre-virus level. But the unexpected dip in the construction PMI... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.) In line with our expectations, net lending was negative again in December and we expect it to remain so in the coming months. After all, we think a weaker near-term economic outlook will restrict the... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Have capital value falls bottomed out? The final few months of MSCI monthly data for 2020 suggest that the fall in capital values last year was not as bad as we anticipated. But we still think a prolonged period of tight restrictions and... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4) The RICS survey for Q4 showed that occupier demand and investment enquiries continued to fall. Though there was a slight improvement on Q3, this was largely due to the industrial sector. And... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Still too early to call a turn in property A return to rental growth and stronger capital value growth in December hint to a turnaround in UK commercial property. But this was a surprising development and we think it is too early to call the... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2020) Very strong demand allowed banks to maintain tight lending standards in Q4 2020 while still increasing mortgage lending volumes. Of course, buyer demand is likely to drop sharply when the stamp duty... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property returns to turn positive in 2021 After hitting a decade-low in 2020, we think that commercial property returns will turn positive in 2021, but any improvement is likely to be modest. This reflects the delayed recovery in the economy... 11th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The seventh consecutive construction PMI reading of over 50 in December mainly reflected a continued strong recovery in housing activity. The rebound in construction of commercial property has already... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The seventh consecutive construction PMI reading of over 50 in December mainly reflected a continued strong recovery in housing activity. The rebound in construction of commercial property has already... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Nov.) Consistent with soft investment activity and a return to more regular loan repayments, net lending was negative for the second consecutive month in November. Looking ahead, we think a weaker near-term... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack The recovery in capital values unlikely to last Rental falls slowed and capital values returned to growth in November, suggesting that we may be too pessimistic in predicting further falls in values. But, with tight virus restrictions remaining and... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Central London office completions to peak in 2021 Office completions are set to rise again in Central London next year. We think this will mark the peak for this development cycle in London though, as an increase in remote working will dim the... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update No end in sight for outflows from open-ended funds With open-ended funds gated for much of the year, net outflows have not been as high as in recent years. But net outflows have picked up pace in recent months and we think this will continue as a... 11th December 2020 · 3 mins read
