UK Commercial Property Update Economic tailwinds not enough for a retail revival Upbeat economic data suggest that consumers have been flocking back to the shops since the reopening of non-essential retail in April. But this is probably not enough to turn around the fortunes of a... 14th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Can urban logistics fill the void in cities? The acceleration of structural shifts is likely to result in some conversion of retail and to a lesser extent office space to urban logistics use. However, we think these conversions will be... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (May) Construction output rose further above pre-virus levels in May despite growing shortages of contractors and materials, and high cost inflation. 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) We think a reduced willingness by lenders to allow for further payment holidays probably explains the sharp fall in net lending to property in April. Looking ahead, we expect subdued transaction... 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May.) While the IPF Consensus Forecasts saw notable upgrades for this year and next, this comes at the expense of weaker performance in all sectors later in the forecast period. Despite that downgrade to... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Signs are positive but headwinds remain Capital growth was solid in April at 0.5% m/m, although that reflected a slight reduction from the rate seen in March. Looking ahead, we expect the recovery in economic activity to continue which will... 28th May 2021 · 1 min read
UK Markets Markets mistaken on when and how BoE will tighten Our forecasts that the Bank of England won’t tighten monetary policy until much later than the markets expect and that when it does it will unwind some QE first (perhaps in 2024) before raising... 24th May 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Property slowly turning a corner The easing of restrictions is good news for the economy, but some commercial property sectors will be slower to benefit than others. Encouragingly, the property downturn was not as bad as we... 21st May 2021 · 25 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Higher gilt yields put pressure on property valuations After a marked rise in gilt yields and a fall in real estate yields, property looked relatively more expensive in Q1 than in Q4. Despite this, property sectors still look either undervalued or fairly... 13th May 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Housing IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Apr.) Strong demand for new projects brought further growth in output during April, according to the latest construction PMIs. But there is also growing evidence of cost pressures, though as yet this does... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Construction Survey points to a rise in output at the start of this year, with the highest workload reading since Q1 2016. Looking ahead, respondents are more optimistic about the outlook but... 6th May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) We think the extension of payment holidays boosted net lending again in March. But as the economy bounces back in H2, lenders are less likely to allow for these concessions and we expect them to... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Slow but steady recovery for investment activity After a 20% y/y fall in 2020, we think the economic recovery in H2 and some pent-up demand will support an improvement in investment activity this year. Though we estimate that totals will rise by 25%... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) The Q1 RICS survey showed that while occupier demand continued to fall, investment enquiries picked up, mostly due to rising industrial activity. Looking ahead, surveyors are less downbeat about... 29th April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Limited recovery in property lending this year Although last year probably marked a low point for lending towards commercial property, we expect the recovery will be subdued this year. After all, lenders have indicated that the availability of... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Boost to returns likely to be short-lived A turnaround in returns during March hinted at a brighter outlook, though this mainly reflected favourable base effects. We think both structural and cyclical headwinds remain and do not see this as... 21st April 2021 · 7 mins read
