UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jun.) As expected, net lending to property eased in June from the sharp rise in May. As the recovery in transaction activity is likely to be slow, we expect demand for new lending to be weak for the rest of... 29th July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Better signs, but more pain still expected Although there were further signs of stabilisation in June, we expect that the slow recovery in the economy will continue to put upward pressure on yields in the coming months. Meanwhile, rents fell... 27th July 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we too gloomy about industrial? The strength of industrial take-up in Q2 was driven by a ramp-up in delivery capacity, particularly by supermarkets and Amazon. Along with the continued upward trend in the MSCI monthly data, this... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) Mortgage credit availability collapsed in Q2, while commercial loan conditions improved on the back of government loan guarantees. Looking ahead, lenders expect both commercial and residential... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update REIT prices highlight wide sectoral divergence While all-property capital values lag real estate equity prices, the movement in REIT prices can also tell us something about sector performance. The staggered recovery in REITs from March’s low point... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (May.) The notable rise in net lending in May was probably due to lenders allowing for payment holidays rather than an increase in new loans to investors. But, these measures can only continue in the short... 29th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental falls intensify, but yield increases slow While rental values fell sharply in May, this was in part offset by yields increasing at a much slower pace than the previous month. In turn, this led to a less steep fall in capital values, but... 26th June 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is it last orders for pub investors? While there has been a decline in the number of pubs, revenues had been rising in recent years. This has led to some big deals in the sector and falling prime yields. Nevertheless, when pubs re-open... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Headwinds for student accommodation While demand for student accommodation has risen during past downturns, we expect it will be very different this time. Uncertainty around face-to-face lectures and travel restrictions could lead to... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rise in Central London vacancy to hurt office rents A reasonable proportion of the Central London office completions for this year are likely to be pushed into 2021, but a fall in employment will hit demand for office space and lead to a pick-up in... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (May.) May’s rise in the construction PMI suggests that April was probably the low point for activity. The improvement was driven both the commercial and residential sectors. Looking ahead, with lockdown... 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) As expected, net lending turned negative in April following a sharp rise in March. Given that transaction activity will see a fall in the second quarter of this year, we think that net lending to... 2nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) The latest IPF Consensus Forecasts were revised down sharply, given the downbeat outlook for the economy and its implications for property. While our views on offices and industrial appear to be... 29th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Further yield rises to weigh on capital values Yields rose again in April and there is more of the same to come over the summer months. While rental values fell slightly, the rise in yields meant that capital values declined by 1.8% m/m in April... 29th May 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook COVID crash to decimate capital values this year The coronavirus outbreak has transformed the economic outlook and is expected to hit commercial property hard. In the near term, we expect transactions, which are already slowing, to collapse and... 22nd May 2020 · 36 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Policy to anchor gilt yields and to buoy equities As a protracted economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis will force the Bank of England to keep interest rates close to zero and further expand its quantitative easing programme, gilt yields will... 14th May 2020 · 12 mins read
