UK Commercial Property Update Headwinds for student accommodation While demand for student accommodation has risen during past downturns, we expect it will be very different this time. Uncertainty around face-to-face lectures and travel restrictions could lead to... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rise in Central London vacancy to hurt office rents A reasonable proportion of the Central London office completions for this year are likely to be pushed into 2021, but a fall in employment will hit demand for office space and lead to a pick-up in... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (May.) May’s rise in the construction PMI suggests that April was probably the low point for activity. The improvement was driven both the commercial and residential sectors. Looking ahead, with lockdown... 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) As expected, net lending turned negative in April following a sharp rise in March. Given that transaction activity will see a fall in the second quarter of this year, we think that net lending to... 2nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) The latest IPF Consensus Forecasts were revised down sharply, given the downbeat outlook for the economy and its implications for property. While our views on offices and industrial appear to be... 29th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Further yield rises to weigh on capital values Yields rose again in April and there is more of the same to come over the summer months. While rental values fell slightly, the rise in yields meant that capital values declined by 1.8% m/m in April... 29th May 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook COVID crash to decimate capital values this year The coronavirus outbreak has transformed the economic outlook and is expected to hit commercial property hard. In the near term, we expect transactions, which are already slowing, to collapse and... 22nd May 2020 · 36 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Policy to anchor gilt yields and to buoy equities As a protracted economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis will force the Bank of England to keep interest rates close to zero and further expand its quantitative easing programme, gilt yields will... 14th May 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Apr.) April’s Construction PMI collapsed to a record low of just 8.2. That was driven by the commercial and residential sectors, which both saw record falls in activity. But looking ahead, with signs that... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) The sharp rise in net lending figures in March was probably due to banks permitting payment holidays rather than a significant boost in new loans to investors. Given that these are likely to be... 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) The Q1 RICS survey confirms fears for the outlook for property. Yet, while a sharp decline in both occupier and investment market conditions was reported, there was a marked deterioration in responses... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls in March just the tip of the iceberg Early signs of the impact of COVID-19 on property were seen in the MSCI monthly data for March. While rental values did not see much of a deterioration, yields saw their biggest rise since after the... 29th April 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1) While the decline in workload reported was modest, there was a marked worsening in responses received towards the end of the survey period. Indeed, with profit margins set to fall and lending likely... 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment activity to fall by a third this year Due to the spread of COVID-19, it is increasingly likely that investment activity will slump to a record low level in the second quarter. Even though we expect a pickup in the second half of the year... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) Mortgage availability is set to collapse in Q2. Part of that will reflect limitations caused by physical distancing measures due to the coronavirus. Yet broader concerns about the economy, house... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Online boost will not prevent wider industrial woes Social distancing measures have accelerated the shift to online spending in recent weeks. But the upside of increased online spending is limited to a few occupiers, most notably supermarkets, and is... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
