Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trade headwinds easing The contraction in EM export growth deepened in October and November but should ease in the next few months as the drags from lower commodity prices and a shift in the Asian electronics cycle fade... 17th December 2019 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China trade deal, infrastructure spending A “Phase One” trade deal has reportedly been reached, including a larger-than-expected rollback of US tariffs. But the resulting boost to China’s economy will be modest and the deal still looks at... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Rising pork prices pushed consumer price inflation to its highest level in close to eight years last month. But the pick-up in food inflation will reverse soon and broader demand-side price pressures... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Nov.) Exports continued to languish last month and the pick-up in headline import growth reflects base effects rather than stronger domestic demand. Meanwhile, FX reserves data released over the weekend... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rift, 2020 fiscal stance US President Donald Trump’s signing into law of the HK Human Rights and Democracy Act this week, after it received near-unanimous support in Congress, underlines the extent to which “standing up” to... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong bill, GDP revisions Trump will probably sign the HK Human Rights & Democracy Act into law during the next week or two. But he may delay its implementation in order to avoid derailing the trade talks. Meanwhile, new... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trade deal won’t avert a further slowdown The US and China still appear to be making progress towards a trade deal. But a partial tariff rollback wouldn’t provide as much of a boost to exports as is often assumed. And any short-run... 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) The contraction in both exports and imports eased more than expected last month. But even if the “Phase One” US-China trade deal crosses the finish line, it is unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Construction strength offset by industry weakness The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data released today shows that a slowdown in industry overshadowed strength in the construction sector. The headwinds to the construction sector should only... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.) An uptick in activity in September didn’t avert a slowdown last quarter. And policy support is unlikely to prevent cooling external demand and slowing construction from resulting in more weakness... 18th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation continued accelerating last month but core inflation held stable at a low level. With demand-side pressures on prices set to remain subdued in the coming months, we think that the... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) The contraction in both exports and imports deepened last month. Import growth should start to recover soon. But with the mini US-China trade deal unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds facing... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Slowdown delayed not averted China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to... 10th October 2019 · 27 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) After worsening across the board in July, growth in industrial production, capital spending and retail sales fell even further last month. And with a strong rebound unlikely any time soon, we... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Weakening demand dragged producer price inflation further into negative territory last month while surging pork prices kept consumer price inflation elevated. With demand-side pressures on prices... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
