China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI strengthened last month from February’s abysmal levels and suggests that the contraction in activity has already bottomed out. But weak foreign demand and labour market... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but monetary conditions still easing Commercial banks unexpectedly did not lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today. Despite this, monetary conditions are still easing as the People’s Bank (PBOC) has been using a broad set of instruments to... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) The latest activity and spending data were much weaker than expected and point to a far deeper downturn than during the Global Financial Crisis. While domestic conditions should improve slowly in the... 16th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) The coronavirus outbreak is putting downward pressure on inflation. While supply chain disruptions have kept food prices high, weaker demand has weighed on the price of other goods and services. 10th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Exports dropped the most since 2008 at the start of this year. Imports held up better but at the expense of a jump in inventories. Inbound shipments will soon play catch-up with the slump in domestic... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong stimulus package a good painkiller The 2020-2021 budget that the Hong Kong government announced earlier today is large in scale and should help offset the damage that the coronavirus outbreak is having on companies and consumers. But... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Coronavirus starting to hit EM trade There are early signs that the economic disruption resulting from China’s measures to contain the coronavirus is hitting supply chains and trade in Emerging Asia. There is also some tentative evidence... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Seasonal volatility and coronavirus disruptions pushed up consumer prices in January. But the PBOC is likely to look through this temporary rise in inflation when setting policy. 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy continued to contract last quarter and the Coronavirus outbreak will probably keep the city in recession for a while longer. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Further slowdown in 2020 with coronavirus a new threat Cooling property construction is likely to weigh on economic activity in the coming quarters. But with external demand starting to stabilise, the slowdown should be gradual, as long as the coronavirus... 23rd January 2020 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Phase One deal: the good and bad for EMs The latest data suggest that y/y EM export growth turned positive in December, having contracted for much of 2019. We think this will mark the start of a run of better EM export figures. Meanwhile... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Economic activity picked up last month, helping to avert a further slowdown last quarter. But despite the recent uptick in activity, we think it is premature to call the bottom of the current economic... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Growth in outstanding broad credit was unchanged last month as a slowdown in bank lending and direct financing was offset by an easing contraction in shadow credit. With credit growth less responsive... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Headline trade growth surged in December. But this is more a reflection of base and price effects than of current strength. And while the outlook for exports is improving, domestic demand will remain... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Moderating food price inflation took the pressure off consumer price inflation while producer price deflation eased thanks to base effects and an increase in energy prices. The big picture is that... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
