China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) A jump in government bond issuance helped push credit growth to a 21-month high in May. The acceleration in credit growth has further to run and will add fuel to the economic recovery. 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation slipped further last month due to falling food prices, while subdued demand continued to weigh on factory gate prices. But food prices aside, the recent decline in inflation... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (May) Export growth turned negative last month as lockdowns abroad weighted on global demand. And the ongoing domestic recovery failed to keep import growth from slipping further. A global recovery and... 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (May) The PMIs show that the recovery in activity extended into last month and appears to have broadened out into parts of manufacturing that were previously struggling. But there are few signs of a marked... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A temporary pause in rate declines Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But the dovish tone of the PBOC’s latest monetary policy report and growing pressure on the central bank to do more, including calls for... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer and producer price inflation fell sharply last month, reflecting the continued weakness in demand. Price pressures are likely to ease further in the coming months, strengthening the case for... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Credit growth accelerated further last month, a trend that will probably continue given signals from the PBOC’s Q1 monetary report published over the weekend that more stimulus measures are in the... 11th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi In a sign that consumption is still being held back by concerns over the virus and households’ finances, domestic tourism spending during the Labour Day holiday was down 60% y/y despite the fact that... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials turn to infrastructure amid slow recovery The early data for April suggest that the post-COVID-19 recovery remains slow and uneven. Policymakers are stepping up fiscal stimulus in response, which looks set to drive a sharp pick-up in... 30th April 2020 · 6 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) The latest survey data shows that renewed weakness in the manufacturing sector was offset by a pick-up in construction and services, leaving the overall pace of recovery broadly unchanged in April. 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Banks pass on PBOC rate cut Commercial banks lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to last week’s policy rate cut. With economic conditions still weak, we expect further rate declines in the coming months. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) GDP contracted in Q1 for the first time since China began publishing quarterly data in 1992, though we suspect that the slump in output was even deeper than officials claim. The monthly data suggest... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Past the worst but recovery to underwhelm After the deepest downturn since the Cultural Revolution in Q1, China’s economy will return to growth this quarter. But with labour market strains holding back domestic demand and external headwinds... 15th April 2020 · 17 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Shipments picked up last month as factories re-opened and domestic demand began to recover. But with economic activity in the rest of the world now collapsing, the worst is still to come for China’s... 14th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly SMEs, developers & exporters sitting out the recovery The first monthly data points for March add to broader evidence that activity began to bounce back last month. But the recovery already appears to be losing momentum and has been unevenly spread, with... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
