China Economics Update LPR on hold with hikes likely next year Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. With the economy now largely back to its pre-virus path and the PBOC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than... 21st September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Economic growth in China accelerated further in August as sentiment improved among consumers and private firms. Retail sales surpassed 2019 levels for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak, while... 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Broad credit growth hit its highest level in two and a half years as growth in direct financing and shadow credit picked up amid steady bank lending. We think that this acceleration has further to run... 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation slipped last month on the back of easing food price inflation. But core consumer prices rose for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak and the ongoing recovery... 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) The pick-up in headline export growth last month reflects base effects and masks a slowdown in levels terms. Meanwhile, imports are doing just as well as exports once price effects are adjusted for. 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) The latest data suggest that China’s economy continued to recover in July, though less quickly than expected. But a slowdown in the recovery was always likely at some point as the initial boost from... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit growth hit its highest rate in nearly two and a half years last month as a pick-up in direct financing and shadow credit offset slower issuance of bank loans. The acceleration has further... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time Next week’s semi-annual review of the Phase One trade deal will likely be a sobering affair given China’s limited progress toward meeting its purchase commitments. While both sides appear content to... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Imports edged up in level terms, consistent with the ongoing recovery in domestic activity. Meanwhile, exports jumped thanks to stronger foreign demand and the ongoing boost from COVID-related... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy stabilised last quarter as fiscal stimulus and stronger demand in mainland China offset weaker consumption and investment. But with the city facing its worst COVID-19 outbreak yet... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as policy priorities shift Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Further rate cuts seem increasingly unlikely as the focus of monetary policy appears to be shifting from stimulating activity to... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Inbound shipments jumped the most in m/m terms in years, adding to evidence that domestic demand was strong at the end of Q2. Exports also strengthened as slower shipments of products related to COVID... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Producer prices rose last month for the first time since the outbreak of COVID-19, adding to evidence that industrial demand had mostly recovered by the end of Q2. Core inflation fell to its weakest... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI The Caixin manufacturing PMI suggests that the pace of the recovery increased in June, echoing the official survey which was released yesterday. This supports our view that GDP growth likely turned... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as rate cutting cycle nears an end Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. We may see a cut or two next quarter but most signs suggest that the bulk of monetary easing this cycle has already taken place. 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) State-led infrastructure construction jumped last month and pushed up growth in fixed asset investment and industrial production. Meanwhile, growth in services activity turned positive and suggests... 15th June 2020 · 3 mins read
