Metals Outlook At the start of a downswing in prices Although the prices of industrial metals have picked up again recently, we still expect them to be falling over the next year or so. Underpinning this view are our forecasts for economic growth to... 4th August 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Supply disruptions remain a key risk The recent bounce in commodity prices continued this week, helped by the ongoing depreciation in the US dollar and a series of risks on the supply side which are rearing their head. Most notably, a... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Price rallies to give way soon to broad-based declines We think that the widespread rallies in commodity prices from their pandemic-induced lows are now close to, or in some cases already past, their peak. Most notably, we anticipate that Q3 will be as... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) Growth in global steel production remained in double digits in June, but this largely reflects the low base for comparison from last year. Meanwhile, government-imposed environmental controls in China... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) Global aluminium output growth softened in June, largely due to power cuts in China’s key aluminium-producing province of Yunnan. But these curbs have started to be relaxed in recent weeks, which... 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Saudi-UAE compromise points to lower oil prices Reports that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have reached a compromise deal over oil production quotas support our forecast that oil prices will end the year lower. Admittedly, the deal is yet to be agreed... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Beginning of the end for copper rally After reaching an all-time high in May, the price of copper has since come off the boil. And we think it will fall further over the next eighteen months or so, as a combination of weaker economic... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell for the eighth week in a row, and domestic production is now showing signs of life. This may add to the pressure on OPEC+ to relax output cuts more quickly and avoid a... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Waiting for the next OPEC+ move The oil market will probably struggle to find direction in the coming weeks until there is some resolution to the impasse created by the failure to reach unanimous agreement at the last monthly OPEC+... 9th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities An emboldened UAE scuppers the OPEC+ united front Oil prices were rising in June even before the July OPEC+ meeting ended in disarray, without agreement. Strong growth in demand as economies lift virus-related restrictions is expected to continue to... 6th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil to outperform in Q3 We expect strong growth in oil demand this quarter as virus-related travel restrictions are lifted in most of the largest consuming countries. At the same time, supply will remain relatively... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Detailed China trade data highlight supply risks The breakdown of China’s trade data for May shows that the recovery in imports of scrap and tin ore has hit a few stumbling blocks. Were these issues to persist, they could help to put a floor under... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Rebound in prices likely to be short-lived Most commodity prices recouped some of their post-FOMC losses this week. Investor concerns surrounding Fed tightening have seemingly eased, which weighed on the dollar. At the same time, news that a... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly This week’s sell-off a sign of things to come Commodity prices fell sharply this week following a more hawkish than expected Fed meeting and a disappointing batch of activity data out of China. Both developments are in line with our forecast of... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Industrial slowdown in China a headwind for prices The prices of most industrial commodities held up fairly well this week. However, the slowdown in broad credit growth and the fall in volume terms of China’s imports of industrial commodities in May... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Restocking boost to LNG prices to fade soon After rising (and falling) sharply at the start of the year, Asia LNG prices have started to push higher again recently. This latest rise seems to have been driven by a rebuilding of stocks, which... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
