The oil market will probably struggle to find direction in the coming weeks until there is some resolution to the impasse created by the failure to reach unanimous agreement at the last monthly OPEC+ meeting. There remains the very real risk of a disorderly collapse of the production restraint agreement, which should act as a lid on prices.
In the coming week, the China trade data, due on Tuesday, will provide an indication of demand in the world’s largest commodity consumer. We expect to see lower commodity import volumes given high prevailing prices and signs of softer economic activity. Otherwise, it will be fairly quiet on the data front. OPEC, the EIA and IEA will be publishing their monthly reports with oil market forecasts, but all supply forecasts are a bit circumspect at the moment given the lack of clarity on OPEC+ production.
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