Commodities Outlook Oil to outperform in 2021 In a reversal of the trend in 2020, we expect oil prices to rise this year and the prices of industrial metals and agriculturals to fall. We suspect that oil demand, particularly in developed... 22nd January 2021 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Time for a reality check After the broad-based rally of the last few weeks, the prices of many industrial commodities dipped a little this week, reflecting concerns about rising new virus cases and the widespread tightening... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Saudi Arabia springs a surprise After a strong finish to 2020, most commodity prices built on their gains in the first week of January, as investor sentiment continued to prove supportive and Saudi Arabia announced that it would... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodity prices starting 2021 on a high Commodity prices rose in December in spite of a tightening of COVID-19 restrictions in a number of developed economies, which will weigh on commodities demand at the start of this year. Markets seem... 5th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Reversal of fortune for oil in 2021 We think that the price of oil will outperform most other commodity prices next year. A lifting of virus restrictions, as vaccines are rolled out, should allow for a strong bounce-back in oil demand... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update European gas prices to narrow gap with Asia next year We expect the unusually large discount in natural gas prices in Europe relative to those in Asia to shrink in the year ahead as the recovery in European demand gathers pace. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices begin to claw back lost ground Despite the re-introduction of lockdown measures in some US states, industrial commodities prices continued to rise this week on the back of ongoing hopes of a vaccine-induced economic boom next year... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the outlook for coal-gas switching in Europe The substitution of coal for natural gas in European power generation has reversed in recent months, but we doubt that this marks the start of a new trend. Instead, we think that gas-based power in... 11th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ provides more questions than answers After much wrangling, this week OPEC+ agreed to a partial roll over of its current collective output cut into next year. But the obvious divisions between members of the group mean the question marks... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Chart Pack On the way up The prospect of effective COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to most energy commodities in November as they have raised the prospect of higher demand in 2021. We anticipate a particularly strong rebound in... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Vaccines mean higher commodity demand in 2021 A flurry of positive news surrounding effective COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to most commodity prices in November, as a faster easing of virus containment measures next year should provide a lift to... 1st December 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ unlikely to spring a surprise All eyes in the oil market will be on the OPEC and OPEC+ meetings on Monday and Tuesday next week. Given the renewed imposition of virus-related restrictions in Western economies, the near-term... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil to tread water ahead of OPEC+ meeting Most commodity prices rose this week, buoyed by news of further progress on COVID-19 vaccines. A rapid roll out of an effective vaccine suggests that economic activity, particularly in the US and EU... 20th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Watch What can rig counts tell us about oil supply? In this Energy Watch, we argue that data on the number of rigs actively drilling for oil can offer a window into future oil production, but that the relationship is far from perfect and the time lags... 17th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Vaccine poses upside risk to forecasts Commodity prices benefitted from news of a potential vaccine for COVID-19 this week. The resulting boost to risk appetite pushed equities and most commodity prices higher, with the exception of... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The rise in US commercial crude stocks last week is a stark reminder that, despite the recent optimism surrounding a potential COVID-19 vaccine, the recovery in oil prices still has a long way to go. 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
