Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) July’s rise in German Ifo business sentiment is an encouraging sign that the recovery has continued despite the Greek crisis, although it does not seem to be gaining much pace. 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Today’s flash manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector returned to growth in the third quarter following a likely drop in output in Q2. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector reaches a turning point This week’s announcement that Italian energy group Eni has discovered gas reserves in the Nile Delta provides the first concrete evidence that the Egyptian government’s energy reforms are starting to... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) While June’s public finances brought less encouraging news on the pace of deficit reduction, there is no need for the Chancellor to panic yet. Indeed, robust growth in tax receipts suggests that the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek elections won’t ensure passage of bailout Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal clears some hurdles, plenty left The plan for a third Greek bailout has cleared a number of hurdles over the last week, including provisional approval by the Greek and German parliaments. But there are plenty of obstacles yet to be... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Assessing the outlook for post-sanctions Iran The recent nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 has rekindled investors’ interest in the Islamic Republic. In this Focus, we take a closer look at the outlook for Iran’s economy and explain... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Credit slowdown to weigh on Asian growth After a poor start to 2015, we expect growth in Emerging Asia to pick up in the second half of the year as the benefits of lower oil prices and loose monetary policy filter through to the domestic... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Longstanding error still exaggerating GDP growth China’s statistics bureau responded today to our argument that glitches in the way it calculates GDP have caused it to overstate growth in recent quarters. It has not laid our doubts to rest. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek “deal” still has major hurdles to clear While yesterday’s announcement of an agreement to provide Greece with a third bailout was greeted with understandable relief, there are still very big hurdles to be cleared before the deal is... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Revisiting the impact of Iran’s nuclear deal on the Middle East The long-awaited announcement that Iran has secured an agreement over its nuclear programme will have implications for the wider Middle East. In short, the economic impact is likely to be small... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Weak shilling prompts rate hike Today’s decision to hike interest rates by 150bp reflects the Bank of Uganda’s concerns about currency weakness. But with export prices subdued and political risk rising, we expect that the shilling... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal will only delay the inevitable Today’s tentative deal for a new Greek bailout clearly reduces the risk of a near-term exit from the single currency. But significant hurdles must be overcome before the deal is finalised. And the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly New Greek bailout would just delay the inevitable There appears to be a chance that Greece and its creditors will come to a last minute agreement on a new bailout which avoids an imminent Greek departure from the currency union. But there are many... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which is the greater global threat: Grexit or China? In our view, the debate over whether Greek exit from the euro or the slump in China’s stock market poses the greater threat to the rest of the world is missing the point that neither actually has to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Osborne Identity: Pragmatist not ideologue Despite being unshackled from the constraints of the coalition, the Chancellor chose pragmatism over ideological fervour in last week’s Budget. As well as easing the pace at which borrowing is set to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
