Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) While today’s Tankan was not as bad as most had feared, it nonetheless corroborates other signs that Japan’s economic recovery has ground to a halt. 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2015 The latest surveys of banks, companies and households in China show a marked deterioration in sentiment about the economy although measures of business profits and orders and of the labour market have... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How big a threat is Brexit to UK property markets? The City of London is the part of the property market with most to lose if the UK electorate votes to leave the EU. Yet even there, the potential for services exports to fast-growing emerging markets... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit would allow a more sensible migration policy It is generally assumed that a UK exit from the EU would lead to a sharp drop in migration, reducing the pool of labour and undermining economic growth. However, a Brexit could lead to a more sensible... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s next Government will have its work cut out This weekend’s general election in Portugal looks set to be a close contest with a minority government currently appearing the most likely outcome. But whichever party ends up on top, it faces an... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) September’s EC business and consumer survey suggests that the economic recovery maintained its pace in Q3. But growth was still fairly slow and we think that the ECB will need to increase its stimulus... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s migrant crisis: how might CEE be affected? There are few signs that Europe’s migrant crisis has had much economic impact on Central Eastern Europe (CEE). However, if recent border controls were to become a permanent fixture, the region could... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update New “arrows” don’t change the outlook for Japan’s economy Prime Minister Abe’s announcement of new targets does not alter the outlook for the economy. In the absence of tangible policies to boost productivity and stem the decline in the working-age... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit & the City: Long-run benefits may justify upfront cost A British exit from the EU would probably hurt the City in the short term, but it would not spelldisaster. The City’s competitive advantage is founded on more than just unfettered access to thesingle... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Alarm bells sound in key economies Worries about slowing growth in China and tightening monetary policy in America have dented some of the optimism surrounding African economies. But the consensus is still far too bullish about the... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalan cloud could rain on Spain This weekend’s regional election could put Catalonia on a course towards secession, casting a cloudover Spain’s recovery and galvanising other independent-minded regions of the euro-zone 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public borrowing figures brought the recent run of good news on the public finances to an abrupt end. That said, hopefully this will just be a temporary blip, as tax receipts should be... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would the public finances be better off after a Brexit? The UK Government could save about £10bn per year on its contributions to the EU’s budget if it left the EU. But a Brexit would not need to create much economic disruption to offset these savings... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election result does not address Greece’s biggest challenge While the result of Greece’s election strengthens the Syriza-led government’s mandate to implement the country’s third bailout, the major challenge for both Greece and its creditors – to find a... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would a Brexit cause foreign direct investment to dry up? Whilst a British exit from the EU may cause the UK to lose out on some foreign direct investment (FDI), access to the single market is not the only reason that firms invest in the UK. Accordingly, we... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Signs of improvement in Indonesia After a disappointing first ten months to Joko Widodo’s presidency, there are encouraging signs that policymaking in Indonesia is finally starting to improve. However, we will need to see further... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
