Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Amid the turmoil in Greece, June’s rise in the euro-zone PMI is encouraging. But the survey also suggests that the euro-zone recovery did not pick up much steam in Q2 and that there are clear risks to... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What explains the recovery in the euro? Despite the crisis in Greece the euro remains near multi-week highs against the dollar. Some have suggested that the euro has actually benefited from the uncertainty, due to the unwinding of short... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Capital controls likely, but they can’t prevent Grexit Accelerating deposit outflows from Greek banks and the ECB’s reluctance to fill the gap with further emergency loans have increased the likelihood that capital controls are imminent. We discuss the... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grexit risks highlight need for MPC to nurture recovery The odds of Greece defaulting on its debt, and possibly exiting the euro-zone too, seem to be growing by the day. However, as we have stressed before, the UK’s direct economic and financial exposures... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Treasuries vulnerable to a reassessment of Fed policy The path of the federal funds rate that is implied by the yields of US Treasuries is much gentler than the one that we project. This leads us to forecast that the 10-year yield will end 2015 higher... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another scary peek at Greece’s debt dynamics A look at Greece’s debt outlook using plausible economic assumptions underlines the inevitability of a substantial form of default, inside or outside the euro-zone. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pension reforms giving small boost to spending The Chancellor’s announcement regarding the amount of money withdrawn from pensions since the new freedoms took effect in April supports our view that the changes will provide a boost, but a... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will Japan’s budget deficit continue to shrink? Even if the government goes ahead with the sales tax that is currently scheduled for 2017, we think it will struggle to reduce the budget deficit much further. Rather than more fiscal reforms, the... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s default options This Update takes a detailed look at the forms of debt default that Greece might employ to reduce near-term financing pressures and lower its debt burden. There are various possible options, but the... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Cyprus a blueprint for Greece? Cyprus’ recent return to economic growth and its fairly swift liberalisation of capital controls might indicate that Greece could resolve its problems without leaving the euro-zone. However, there are... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the potential economic impact of MERS in Korea Based on the limited data available so far it looks like Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has already taken a toll on Korea’s economy. In this Update, we outline our best and worse case... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Cabinet delay raises policy-making concerns President Muhammadu Buhari’s long delay in appointing a new federal cabinet is detracting from his reputation as a decisive reformer and may be a sign of deep divisions within the ruling power. The... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jun.) June’s sharp fall in ZEW investor sentiment suggests that the German recovery is suffering from fears about the impact of the Greek crisis. 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further big falls in EM currencies unlikely, but expect volatility The Greek crisis appears to be coming to a head, but so far at least there has been very little negative impact on emerging market currencies. Should Greece default, and especially if that entails... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Severe demographic headwinds to hold back Hong Kong Hong Kong has both the highest life expectancy and the lowest birth rate in the world. One consequence is that Hong Kong’s working age population is set to decline by more than that of any other... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf countries weathering the storm, but growth to weaken The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by low oil prices relatively well this year, with foreign exchange reserves having been drawn down to sustain spending. Large savings mean that this... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
