Canada Economics Weekly Declining vacancies should soothe Bank’s nerves The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations suggests it was closer to resuming interest rate hikes in April than we thought. Nonetheless, as the data releases this week showed a fall in the job... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP to shrink across H2 External demand is holding up better than we had anticipated and we now expect a renewed rise in Q2 GDP following a modest decline in Q1. But we still expect major trading partners to enter a... 28th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Activity (Mar. 23) & Tokyo CPI (Apr. 23) The end-month data rush only adds to the dilemma the Bank of Japan is facing. While labour market conditions are now easing in earnest, underlying inflation is set to surpass 4% at the national level... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions easing We estimate that employment growth continued to trend lower in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by a more moderate 180,000. That would be the smallest monthly gain in more than two years, but... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth to slow only gradually Wage growth in the euro-zone is likely to remain above the level compatible with 2% core inflation this year and only gradually return to a more sustainable level thereafter. 27th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Mar. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Apr. 2023) 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Housing turnaround makes the Bank’s job harder House prices edged up in March and the sharp rise in the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests there are further gains to come. As the improvement has been driven mainly by a collapse in new listings... 26th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs still pointing to robust GDP growth Once again the PMIs suggest that real activity in advanced economies continues to shrug off the effects of higher interest rates. According to the flash PMIs, GDP and employment growth both got off to... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Direct economic effects of CRE rout will be limited We expect rising interest rates and structural headwinds to trigger a deep rout in commercial real estate. The impacts on the real economy will be mostly indirect via the impact on small bank lending... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The labour market became a bit less tight in February and wage growth continued to ease, albeit slowly. That leaves the Bank of England with a tough call on whether to raise interest rates further... 18th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central banks’ reaction functions diverge Central banks in Australia and New Zealand have taken starkly different approaches to managing the inflation-unemployment trade-off in their countries. Despite being behind the curve on interest-rate... 17th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration boom won’t be inflationary Concerns that the ongoing surge in net overseas migration to Australia will fuel demand-pull inflation are overblown, especially with the population still below its pre-virus trend. To the contrary, a... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Mixed signals for now but broader weakness to come Recent data appear to confirm that economic activity held up better than feared at the start of 2023. Retail sales rose in most major economies over the first two months of the year, world industrial... 13th April 2023 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 23) 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Banking troubles won’t stop ECB hiking to 4% We think that the recent stress in the banking sector has had little impact on the outlook for monetary policy in the euro-zone. While there were significant outflows of bank deposits in the five... 11th April 2023 · 11 mins read
