Europe Commercial Property Update Nordic investment set to maintain its recent strength Outperformance in the Nordic economies will support occupier markets and rental growth prospects this year. As a result, we think that investment volumes in 2019 will be close to the level recorded in... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper euro-zone slowdown increases occupier risks A weaker outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to see a more marked slowdown in rental growth, shifting the risks to property markets on the occupier side. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Dec.) Weakness in investment in December likely reflects investors holding fire due to uncertainty but, even so, we do not expect investment to rebound in 2019. 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structurally lower interest rates support valuations With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Falls in real estate equities overstate weakness Falls in real estate equity values over the turn of the year suggest that all-property capital values could decline by 10% y/y. However, we think these movements overstate the weakness. Even so, the... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Nov.) Consistent with the softness seen in investment and development activity, net lending was subdued in November. And with capital and rental value growth expected to slow further in 2019, a sustained... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outlook for total returns in 2019 Commercial property returns are expected to moderate considerably in 2019 and risks are clearly to the downside. But if we are right and GDP growth rebounds this year, the outlook for office and... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could a no deal Brexit bring upside to the euro-zone? A no deal Brexit is unlikely to provide much support for property in the rest of Europe. The negative impact on euro-zone occupier markets should be modest, but investors, rather than reallocate UK... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields to plateau With growth in the euro-zone slowing faster than expected and the chances of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike increasing, property yields are now more likely to plateau next year, than... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do non-prime to prime yield spreads suggest? At the all-property level, the difference between non-prime and prime yields does not suggest that either is mispriced. However, non-prime yields for shopping centres look low relative to prime yields... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Nov.) Although investment activity has picked up gradually over 2018, the low value of deals completed in November suggests that commercial property investment will struggle to reach 2017 totals this year... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Can London office and retail outperform the rest of Europe? London office and retail property are set to produce only middling performance in the next few years, when compared to Western Europe’s other major markets. We think London’s large development... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Will rental growth justify the fall in industrial yields? With all of the hype around the potential impact of online retailing on industrial occupier demand, there has been a big shift in the relative pricing of industrial assets. Although rents in the UK... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How will a no deal Brexit impact UK property? We expect a no deal Brexit to bring a hit to UK commercial property capital values of between 5% and 9%, which will be mild compared with past crashes. Even in our central forecast, assuming a Brexit... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rental growth in Germany to run out of steam With Germany’s labour market close to capacity, limited scope for strong employment growth will hurt office occupier demand. As new completions hit the market at the same time, we see rental growth... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lower office supply to prop up central London rents The volume of office space completed this year in central London is on track to be the highest in 14 years. But with new space under construction declining, a more restrictive supply pipeline is... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
