UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The tick up in mortgage approvals in December suggested that the dip in housing market activity expected after the stamp duty holiday has already come and gone, and that transactions will stay above... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) There was no cooling in the housing market at the turn of the year, as the Nationwide house price index recorded its largest January increase for 17 years. We suspect that prices will continue to... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Higher bond yields more headwind than hurricane Although we expect a further rise in government bond yields to undermine the returns from most “safe” assets, we don’t expect it to be big enough to bring the prices of most “risky” financial assets... 31st January 2022 · 25 mins read
China Chart Pack A less subdued Lunar New Year Millions of people traditionally travel across China to spend this evening, the eve of Lunar New Year, with their families. The tradition has been severely disrupted by the pandemic. Last year, amid a... 31st January 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Home sales and prices to cool as affordability worsens Mortgage rates are on the rise, and we expect the 30-year rate will increase to 4.0% by end-2022 and 4.5% by end-2023. While that only takes mortgage rates back to where they were in early 2019, house... 28th January 2022 · 17 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Has there been a flight to quality in London offices? There is a perception that a shift in workspace preferences brought about by the pandemic has redirected demand towards higher quality office space. But while there is some evidence of a flight to... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Pandemic not the only risk to Stockholm property While we think the direct risks to property from the pandemic have reduced, the uncertain impact of structural change and our expectation that interest rates will now be increased from late this year... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) Market sentiment picked up in Q4, driven by widespread improvements in conditions across sectors. Respondents are also becoming more upbeat about the next 12 months, with forecasts for rents and... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4) The spread of the Omicron variant took some of the steam out of the property recovery in Q4 2021, but the latest RICS results are consistent with further growth in 2022. They also highlight continued... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The centre holds up for Paris office rents The early data indicate that Paris offices recovered last year, though much of this reflected strength in the core CBD market. With the economic background supportive and supply relatively contained... 27th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) New home sales had a strong end to the year, as the record low number of existing homes on the market drove the sale of homes which were still under construction. That lack of existing supply will... 26th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2021) The NCREIF index saw its strongest ever quarterly price appreciation in Q4, with values up by 5.1% q/q, driving a quarterly return of 6.2%. That took annual returns to 17.7%, led by industrial, where... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Cyclical trough, tepid rebound China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov.) Case-Shiller reported annual house price growth falling for the third consecutive month in November. And with rising mortgage rates set to stretch affordability to its worst since 2008, we expect... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London transactions outperform, but not prices The jump in transactions during the pandemic was larger in London than other regions as the market didn’t experience the same drop in supply as elsewhere. That reflected many existing homeowners... 25th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising house prices strengthen ECB hawks’ case Euro-zone inflation would be even further above target if owner-occupied housing costs were included in the region’s headline measure. Their formal inclusion won’t take place for a few years yet, but... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
